As the NASCAR Cup Series returns from its two-week summer break, the pressure is rising for drivers and teams who have yet to lock themselves into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
The 10-race postseason for NASCAR’s top level of competition begins with 16 eligible drivers on Sunday, Sept. 8, in the Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Over the course of the regular season, full-time drivers and their teams earn a spot in the playoff field by winning races or, if there are fewer than 16 eligible winners, earning enough points through stage and race finishes.
Heading into this weekend’s action at Richmond Raceway, 12 drivers have earned playoff berths via victories in the 22 points paying races completed so far. Four races remain (Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington) in the regular season; if each races ends with a new playoff-eligible winner, then NASCAR’s Cup playoff field would be composed entirely of race winners for the first time in the playoff era. Otherwise, any repeat winners in the remaining four races would open the door for drivers to make the field of 16 through points earned over the course of the season.
Here’s the current state of play for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, starting with the competitors who already know they’ll be pursuing a championship at Atlanta next month:
Locked In:
1. William Byron – Byron was the first driver to effectively punch his ticket to the NASCAR Cup playoffs by winning the Daytona 500 back in February. Since then Byron has added two more victories at Circuit of the Americas and Martinsville, firmly establishing himself as a contender this fall.
2. Daniel Suárez – The Mexican-American’s second career Cup Series win came in unbelievable fashion in the first race at AMS earlier this year. By a matter of inches, Suárez eclipsed defending NASCAR champion Ryan Blaney and two-time series champion Kyle Busch in a three-wide photo finish to earn the victory and a spot in this year’s playoffs.
3. Kyle Larson – The 2021 series champion quickly earned a spot in the playoff field with a victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March. Since then he’s tallied three more victories (Kansas, Sonoma, and Indianapolis) and vaulted to the top of the regular season standings. Those victories, paired with his high rank in the overall standings, will equip Larson with a lion’s share of playoff points to help him pursue a second title this year.
4. Christopher Bell – With a victory at Phoenix Raceway in March, followed up with two more in the Coca-Cola 600 and at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Bell has locked into the playoffs for the fourth straight year. Bell will hope to start his playoff run right at Atlanta as he pursues his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance.
5. Denny Hamlin – Victories at Bristol, Richmond, and Dover have perennial title contender Denny Hamlin locked into the 2024 playoff field. Currently competing in his 20th NCS season, Hamlin has long been a championship favorite but has yet to hoist the Bill France Cup at season’s end. Will this finally be the year?
6. Chase Elliott – After a disappointing 2023 season that saw the series’ Most Popular Driver go winless, the Dawsonville, Ga., native returned to his winning ways at Texas Motor Speedway in April. While Elliott hasn’t tallied any more race wins since then, the No. 9 has been one of the most consistent cars in the field from week to week. Elliott is currently 2nd in the NCS standings, just 10 points behind his teammate Larson for the regular season championship.
7. Tyler Reddick – At Talladega earlier this year Reddick notoriously disproved the claim that 23XI team co-owner Michael Jordan was a bad luck charm by grabbing the win and giving Jordan his first in-person victory lane celebration as a team owner in NASCAR. Reddick hasn’t taken any checkered flags since, however, much like Elliott, he has been one of the most consistent drivers this season and is currently 3rd in the regular season standings, just 15 points out of the lead.
8. Brad Keselowski – The 2011 series champion ended a three-year winless skid at Darlington Raceway in May. The win was Keselowski’s first driving for the team he co-owns, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, and likewise will give him an opportunity to bring home a championship for the team he operates.
9. Austin Cindric – One Team Penske driver’s misfortune was another’s fortune at Gateway in June; as Ryan Blaney’s car ran out of gas coming to the white flag, Cindric rocketed past to snag his second career NCS victory. Cindric will make his second playoff appearance this fall after earning a playoff berth in his rookie season by winning the 2022 Daytona 500.
10. Ryan Blaney – Fortunately for Blaney, the heartbreaking missed opportunity at Gateway was made right just two races later at Iowa Speedway. The defending series champ won the inaugural NCS race at Iowa to earn an opportunity to pursue back-to-back titles and added a victory at Pocono Raceway last month for good measure. If Blaney does win the championship again this season, he would be the first driver to win consecutive titles since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006-2010.
11. Joey Logano – After a slow start to his 2024 campaign, the two-time series champion locked into the playoffs by outlasting the field in an unprecedented five-overtime finish at Nashville Superspeedway. Logano is one of four drivers to already visit victory lane since Atlanta Motor Speedway was revamped ahead of the 2022 season; a second win at AMS could be a springboard to a third series title.
12. Alex Bowman – Bowman expertly navigated the wet streets of Chicago to snap a winless streak that dated back to March of 2022. After missing NASCAR’s postseason last year, Bowman will be among the 16 driver field of championship contenders for the sixth time in seven years.
Almost a Lock:
Martin Truex Jr. (+80 to the cut line) – The 2017 NCS champion has had victory slip through his grasp multiple times this season, but nonetheless has performed consistently enough to be well above not only the current cut line but also his nearest competitor; he’s currently 66 points – more than a full race – ahead of his closest challenger to earn a spot in the playoff field via points accumulated.
For Truex to miss the playoffs, there would need to be new winners in all four remaining races or an improbable collapse by his No. 19 team over the next four events. It’s far more likely that Truex removes the doubt altogether by visiting victory lane himself in the next four weeks.
On the bubble:
Ty Gibbs (+42 to the cut line) – While Gibbs is still searching for his first career win in his second full-time season, he has been solid all season long and is firmly in contention for his first playoff appearance. However, unlike his teammate Truex, Gibbs does not have much room for error as things currently stand, and any new winners not named Gibbs between now and the end of the regular season will only increase the pressure.
Chris Buescher (+17 to the cut line) – If Buescher does not ultimately make the playoff field, he will undoubtedly look at two races in May as the missed opportunities that made the difference. After finishing 2nd at Kansas by the closest margin in NCS history (0.001 seconds), Buescher tangled with Reddick the following week at Darlington while battling for the win. Instead of possibly getting a playoff-securing victory, Buescher not only lost a chance to win but also plummeted to 30thin the final results, surrendering dozens of valuable points as a result. If Buescher falters – of if the cut line is moved up by new winners – those points could be the difference between Buescher racing for a championship or sitting on the outside looking in.
Ross Chastain (+7 to the cut line) – After winning the 2023 season finale at Phoenix, Chastain entered the 2024 season with high hopes to return to the playoffs and once again chase a title. If the regular season ended today, he would indeed have that opportunity, but only just – and with four races still left to compete his narrow gap to the cut line leaves no room for mistakes.
Bubba Wallace (-7 to the cut line) – Wallace is currently on the outside looking in, but within striking distance to point his way into the NASCAR playoffs for the second time in his career. New winners would make the task more difficult, however the task remains very achievable if there’s no more than two new winners and Wallace is able to take repeat his recent success at the remaining tracks. At the same time, any mishap between now and the end of the regular season would likely result in Wallace needing a victory to make the playoff field.
Winning solves everything:
There’s 17 more drivers who compete full-time and are eligible to compete in the NASCAR Playoffs, but their only realistic chance of making that happen would be by winning one of the four remaining races. These drivers are:
- Chase Briscoe
- Kyle Busch
- Todd Gilliland
- Michael McDowell
- Josh Berry
- Noah Gragson
- Carson Hocevar
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Ryan Preece
- Erik Jones
- Corey Lajoie
- Justin Haley
- Daniel Hemric
- Jon Hunter Nemechek
- Austin Dillon
- Zane Smith
- Harrison Burton
All four remaining regular season races are opportunities for these drivers to make it happen, with the penultimate race of the regular season at Daytona perhaps being the greatest opportunity of all.
The pressure to perform will only increase over these next four weeks; the reward for overcoming it will be more pressure yet as a championship contender when the series comes to Atlanta for the first round of the playoffs.
Tickets and camping accommodations for the Sept. 6-8 Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart NASCAR weekend are available at www.AtlantaMotorSpeedway.com.
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